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Friday, February 6, 2009

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Places To Get a Great Forex Trading System

Places To Get a Great Forex Trading System

It’s very important that if you’re exploring forex trading or already trading that you have a trading system. One aspect of that trading system are the actual setup rules which usually contain entry and exit techniques. Traders put a lot of time and effort in developing these setup rules too often neglecting other aspects such as position sizing or relative size of your profits compared to losses. Therefore it’s important to find a comprehensive forex trading system.
Where can you find a comprehensive forex trading system? Throughout the last three years, I’ve been through many trading systems obtained mostly from books, forums, or other websites. I’ve found that almost every time, I’ll mold that system into something totally different than the original incarnation, something that fits my personality and style of trading. Many times, the original system will also need to be expanded to include things that were neglected or forgotten. Those of you searching for the perfect system may find this method of modifying existing forex trading systems desirable. There are places where you can find the whole package without any need for modification.
This brings me to the question, "where did you get your forex trading system?" I think there are four main ways of getting a trading system.
Buy it. There are tons for sale out there on the net but heed caution. Many were just copied from forums, books, or other websites. Sometimes when you buy forex education, part of the package will include a trading system. For instance, Rob Booker provides his Arizona rules as part of his mentoring program.
Get a free one. There are many free systems that can be found in books, forums, or other websites. I guess one can question whether a system found is a book is free since you paid for the book.
Create an original system yourself. My main trading system is an original creation. There may be other systems out there that are similar to it since it’s a culmination of years of exposure to other systems and experiences.
Modify someone else’s system and make it your own. As I stated above, I have done this many times.
I’ve created a poll that asks you this question here.

The Bad News About Forex Automated Trading

The Bad News About Forex Automated Trading

I’ve read a lot about how automated forex trading systems just don’t work in the long run but I can’t conclude this from personal experience. I’ve never seriously traded forex using automation. The following is an email from a trader who can conclude this from his experience. I found it totally worth sharing.
I came across your blog this afternoon whilst casually surfing the various forums in lieu of watching rubbish on TV.
I find your search for trading success an interesting one as in many respects it mirrors my own experience in many ways.
I spent well over two years, pretty much full time, searching for automated solutions to trading, having been in the process automation business for 25 years. To summarise, I have concluded it is a futile exercise with the technologies currently open to the average retail trader. I have yet to find any expert that is reliable enough to be left trading on its own and have pretty much concluded that most are really curve fitting solutions. I have seen no strategies posted anywhere that are consistent or reliable and capable of being automated without significant risk. I see some that pertain to be profitable (Artemis would be an example) but it needs constant adjustment and tuning which makes it akin to semi automation, not full automation.
However, there are manual strategies that are available that are profitable; they just do not lend themselves to automation due to the ability of the human braoin to make decisons based on proce movement that are pretty much impossible for any expert to make. So I abandoned my search for full automation solutions a year ago and concluded semi - automation was probably the right route. I trade manually today, with a few automated aids.
Linked with that, money management and certainly trading psychology are massive keys to success, the first to ensure you are alive to trade tomorrow and the latter because it takes time to get your mental state right to be able to trade at all, and that is what takes the time Rich. Sure, you need to understand the basics of trading, but without the right mental state, you’ll never be consistently profitable.

Forex Rate

About Forex RateAt Forex Rate our aim is to provide as much free Currency trading information as possible on one site. Our pages are geared towards active currency daytraders and include our Forex Forum currency message boards, Online Forex Trading recomendations and information, live forex charts, live forex quotes for most currency cross pairs,daily currency trading news and forex forecasts with our free RSS news feed. We also provide intraday and end of day forex historical data - free for downloading. Forex Rate provides live information for currency trading.Forex Rate - Currency Trading News, contact us at info at forex rate.co.ukForex Rate - Currency News FX Fundamentals By DailyFX - US Dollar - Is the sell-off in the US dollar over? Probably not over the long term, but in the... Nov 03 2006 08:45AM GMT FX Cross Market Reaction By DailyFX - Wednesdays economic releases provided another bearish shade for the worlds biggest economy. A number of indicators covering various sectors of the... Nov 02 2006 08:41AM GMT FX Fundamentals By DailyFX - US Dollar - Disappointing US data has sent the dollar tumbling to a fresh monthly low. Although the University of... Nov 01 2006 08:31AM GMT FX Fundamentals By DailyFX - US Dollar - The market has been very quiet today but traders should not lose sight of the fact that last week... Oct 31 2006 08:34AM GMT Japan overtaken, U.S.A. next ? Chinese growth! Since the entry of the U.S.A into World War II the U.S. has been the most powerful nation on earth. But how long will this

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Fed surprises with .75 point interest rate cut

The Fed shocked Wall Street Tuesday (December 16) afternoon when it announced a .75 point cut in the Fed funds... ... rate bringing the rate the government charges lenders to a record low of .25 per cent. The discount rate was cut to .5 per cent. This means that it should be cheaper than ever for consumers and businesses to borrow money for spending, though analysts expect a bounce higher in mortgage rates.Most analysts had predicted a half-point cut from the Fed while some more conservatively expected a ¼-point cut or no cut at all. No one really expected the Fed would be so aggressive. However, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke stated that with inflation under control, the Central Bank is empowered to do whatever is in its control to encourage borrowing and economic expansion. Bernanke indicated that he expected rates to stay low for sometime until there is no question the economy is stabilized and heading back to where it belongs.Many financial and consumer markets are impacted by today’s move. The Fed funds rate had already been a very low one per cent and many bears still believe consumers are too scared to borrow and spend in the current climate. However, already low credit card and personal loan rates should now be at a point where it is hard for middle class Americans to avoid the temptation to buy now and pay later. Many excellent credit borrowers are seeing credit card rates and other revolving loan rates as low as 5-6 per cent.Mortgages have been as cheap as ever this week. According to bankrate.com, the current national average for mortgage rates is 5.64 per cent. In some parts of the country, consumers are seeing rates posted as low as 4.875 per cent with discounts and other fees applicable. Some analysts believe the cut in the funds rate may actually see mortgage rates go back up a bit. Mortgage rates tend to operate more as speculative markets do with trends based more on expectation than actual events, meaning after a rate cut, mortgage rates may go back up. Mortgage-backed security investments have much to do with mortgage rates. Home equity loans and other secured loans are more likely to stay in synch with rate moves and dip lower.The hope of the Fed is that consumers will feel more comfortable opening up their wallets and that businesses will be more comfortable expanding and maintaining jobs that might otherwise be cut. Rate cuts alone cannot fix everything currently wrong with the US economy, but the Fed appealed more to investor and American interest with the conviction of its move and its willingness to take the steps necessary to help turn things around.The dollar suffered more after the rate cut. Most currency speculators had made bets on dollar movement expecting a .25-.5 rate cut. The .75 point cut sent the dollar flailing against the likes of the yen and the Euro. Surprisingly strong rate cuts are negative for a currency becomes it makes carrying the currency less beneficial. Currencies that have higher interest yields are more enticing for conservative currency speculators because even if the currency moves counter to their investment, there is still a chance to earn some interesting against a lower rate currency.Consumers and businesses have been reluctant to take action after many of the other government interventions late this year. However, at some point, people are going to realize that loan rates may never be so low again, and a great opportunity lies before them.

Forex

Saturday, February 07, 2009

Gold Slips on Dollar Bounce

THE PRICE OF GOLD fell further in London on Tuesday morning, sliding 2.2% from Monday's US close to hit $840... ... an ounce – its lowest Dollar-level since Christmas Eve.European stock markets rallied, while government bonds also retreated, pushing 10-year US Treasury yields up to 2.51%.Crude oil rose above $50 per barrel as Israel expanded its ground offensive in Gaza, and European states including Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia and Turkey said their supplies of natural gas have been cut since Russia halted flows to Ukraine in its dispute over a long-term pricing deal."The pressure remains on Gold Prices," says today's note from Mitsui, the London precious metals dealer, "and our $845 support has now been taken out."UK gold investors also saw the price dip to a two-week low on Tuesday morning. The Gold Price in Euros, however, held little changed as the single currency fell hard on the forex market – down 10¢ from this time last week to $1.3340."Seems the [New Year] reallocation of funds in commodity indexes is adding supply to the gold market," Mitsui continues. "With a lack of Indian physical demand due to an inauspicious period [on the Hindu calendar], one has to wonder where the support will come from?"Western Gold Investment demand continues to grow, however, with the New York-listed SPDR Gold ETF continuing to keep a record volume of gold in trust – up by almost one-quarter from the start of 2007 to vault 780 tonnes in bank-owned facilities.As a proportion of all speculative betting on Comex futures and options, new US data for last week showed the number of bullish trades at 90% – considerably above the 5-year average of 81%.The total outstanding volume of Gold Futures contracts held by hedge funds and other "large speculators", however, stands almost one-half below the record peak of January last year.The commercial traders of refineries, mints, wholesalers and bullion banks, meantime, closed 2008 right in line with their bullish ratio's 5-year average of 30.8%."People [actually] want real gold," says Peter Hambro, chairman of the eponymous (and highly leveraged) Russian gold miner, interviewed today by the Financial Times."It is the physical market driving the price."Looking ahead to Gold in 2009, "The amount of [government] money being pumped into the system is vast," Hambro goes on. "Interest rates get lower and lower, and the government is practically buying bus tickets to put more money in."At some stage, that money will start chasing real assets, and the deflation you see now will be followed by amazing inflation across the board."For now, and "while safe-haven buying of Gold Coins and bars continues," says John Reade – commodity strategist for Swiss bank UBS in London – "this may not be enough to drive gold higher."Certainly, we are seeing no jewelry demand at the moment."The Bombay Bullion Association yesterday reported a 47% drop in India's gold imports for last year from 2007's record level.But that said, "Gold's move in the last couple of days is almost entirely due to the strength of the Dollar," says Reade. And for anyone considering Gold vs. Other Investment Asset Classes in 2009, "the worst-case scenario for [all other investment] markets would be caused by a run on the Dollar," warns Tim Bond – head of global asset allocation at Barclays Capital, also speaking to the FT.A fresh panic out of the world's No.1 reserve currency following its sharp bounce in the second-half of 2007 would "terminate the Fed's attempts to Quantitatively Ease and reduce credit spreads," says Bond."The effect on global markets would be catastrophic, with most asset values other than Gold collapsing."International money market data, released late last night, showed net positioning against the US Dollar rose on the forex market last week, up to a net-short position of $942 million from the previous week's $559m.That compares with a record short-Dollar position of almost $34 billion hit in late 2007, and the long-Dollar position of $15bn reached in Oct. '08.For every bet on the Dollar falling, of course, traders have to bet that another currency will rise – but "as a result of the global scope of the recession," writes the head of David Hale Global Economics for the FT today, "there is no country that wants its exchange rate to appreciate.As central banks everywhere slash interest rates and increase the money supply to devalue their currencies, "The clear alternative [therefore] to the Dollar in 2009 is that ancient form of money, gold," Hale goes on."Precious metals could emerge as a hedge for private investors suspicious of central banks and fearful of inflation."Looking at the mechanics of Buying Gold in 2009, "Interest rates are very, very low right now, so that reduces the holding cost," notes Imtiaz Ahmed of Macquarie First South, speaking to Johannesburg's SAfm and comparing the cost of owning gold against holding official government currencies."I think the wind is starting to come to [gold's] back, especially with all this money being thrown around. It's going to be inflationary. I suspect that should be good for gold."Gold remains for me a long-term asset play."Adrian AshBullionVaultFormerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at BullionVault – where you can Buy Gold Today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.(c) BullionVault 2009Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

International Market

International Market Research Center

The International Market Research Center offers extensive resources for conducting international business transactions.


FITA's Really Useful Links - an Index of more than 8000 International Trade Web Resources
Annotated, indexed and fully searchable database of more than 8000 International Trade Web Resources. "The FITA index of Web resources is just amazing." ENTERweb

International Market Research Resources
Links to major international market research pages on the Internet.

FITA/Europages Directory
The FITA/Europages Directory of European Business lists more than 600,000 European businesses in 35 countries in 25 languages. Click here to search it for free.

Global Sources China Sourcing Reports
Benefit from in-depth profiles of major China manufacturers in over 30 industry-specific sourcing reports. Get details of production capabilities, export capacities, R&D competencies, QC procedures and suppliers’ future plans. Profit from analyses based on personal factory visits and intensive interviews with senior managers that are not available anywhere else. Also get comprehensive China supply-industry overviews for your selected industry. Receive full details of supply, demand, price and output trends, with forecasts for the next 12-18 months, from China’s main production centers. Choose the reports you need from over 30 best-selling titles.

U.S. Department of Commerce's Trade Information Center
The U.S. Department of Commerce's Trade Information Center serves as a comprehensive resource for information on all federal government export assistance programs. The Center also provides general counseling on export licenses and controls, sources of financing and market research, links to trade missions and other trade events, tax and tariff information and other country-specific assistance. Click here or call the Center's trade specialists toll-free at 1-800-USA-TRADE.

Export Navigator
An international trade search engine of more than 10.000 free international market market reports from the most reputable market research websites.

Export.gov Market Research
Extensive market research reports for most major countries and industries prepared by the staff of the US Department of Commerce's US Commerical Service.

WISERTRADE Foreign Trade Database
Extensive databases of international trade data compiled by the World Institute for Strategic Economic Research at Holyoke Community College in Holyoke, Massachusetts.

Includes:

  • US state exports by HS, NAICS, SIC, PORT
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FITA/Globalspeak Webcasts
Video broadcasts on international trade topics from leaders in international trade.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Foreign Affairs

Obama's Middle East Agenda

To be successful in the Middle East, the Obama administration will need to move beyond Iraq, find ways to deal constructively with Iran, and forge a final-status Israeli-Palestinian agreement.

How to Reprogram the Pentagon

The Pentagon has to do more than modernize its conventional forces; it must also focus on today's unconventional conflicts — and tomorrow's.


How the Financial Crisis Will Weaken the West

The financial crisis has called into serious question the credibility of western governments and may precipitate an eastward shift of power.

audio icon Listen to this essay on CFR.org »

A New Trade Agenda

Trade problems are an underlying cause of the financial crisis. To truly revive the world economy, a new trade consensus is necessary.

Who Broke Global Finance?

The current economic crisis may have one winner: the Chinese financial model, which — together with the IMF — holds the keys to fixing the problem.


Recently in Foreign Affairs: Barack Obama's 2007 essay outlining his foreign policy agenda.

Renewing American Leadership

"Afer Iraq, we may be tempted to turn inward. That would be a mistake. The American moment is not over, but it must be seized anew. We must bring the war to a responsible end and then renew our leadership — military, diplomatic, moral — to confront new threats and capitalize on new opportunities. America cannot meet this century's challenges alone; the world cannot meet them without America."